Posts tagged with 'Dean Baker'
Weekly Audit: Brown-Nosing Wall Street Reform
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by Zach Carter, Media Consortium blogger
More than two years after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the House and Senate finally ironed out their differences on Wall Street reform in the wee, small hours of Friday morning. The bill now goes back to both the House and Senate for final approval, but it’s fate in the Senate is uncertain following the defection of Tea Party Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA).
The resulting bill has several things going for it, but largely misses the critical structural lessons of the Great Financial Crash of 2008. As Wall Street continues to score epic profits and grotesque bonuses over the coming months, progressives must be committed to continuing the fight for a fair economy. (more…)
Weekly Audit: Deficit Reduction = Selling Out to Wall Street
by Zach Carter, Media Consortium blogger
In the fall of 2008, decades of finance-first, bankers-know-best economic policies coalesced to create one of the worst economic crises in history, one that the banks themselves could not survive without staggering levels of government support.
Yet astonishingly, nearly two years after the crash, Wall Street is still setting the economic agenda in Washington. As Congress begins to examine broader economic policy, lawmakers are under heavy Wall Street pressure to reduce the federal budget deficit—even though that could mean deepening the jobs crisis without any substantive economic benefits. (more…)
Weekly Audit: More Jobs Please
By Zach Carter, Media Consortium Blogger
One year after President Barack Obama secured passage of his critical economic stimulus package, the U.S. Senate is finally taking anther look at how to create jobs and repair the economy. These issues are more important than ever, but absurd Republican obstructionism and timid Democratic negotiation are once again threatening good public policy.
Not really bipartisan, is it?
As Steve Benen notes for The Washington Monthly, the Senate Finance Committee reached a “bipartisan” agreement to supposedly spur job creation last week. Republicans demanded billions in tax cuts for wealthy people, but kept on caterwauling about the federal budget deficit. In exchange for $80 billion to dedicate to jobs—an extremely modest figure given the state of the labor market—Republicans asked for hundreds of billions in giveaways for the rich. And that’s just to get the bill through the Finance Committee, much less the full Senate. (more…)
Weekly Audit: Time to Audit the Fed
By Zach Carter, Media Consortium Blogger
Two key lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee, Reps. Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Ron Paul (R-TX), are pushing to authorize a full, comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. The plan has sparked fury from both the Fed and the corporate banking industry, but the proposal is so appealing that the controversy is almost laughable.
The Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful economic institutions in the world, but most of its operations are conducted in total secrecy. The Fed’s rescue activities have dwarfed the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, but without any public accounting. Some of these efforts may have been entirely appropriate, but we don’t even know who the Fed is helping. That fact is a major barrier to establishing effective and fair economic policy. (more…)
Weekly Audit: Unemployment Fueling Political Storm
By Zach Carter, Media Consortium Blogger
Unemployment figures in the U.S. are staggering: The official rate stands at 10.2%, the highest in 26 years. A broader measure that includes people who are involuntarily working part-time or who have given up looking for work is at 17.5%. That’s a full-blown economic emergency.
But, as Joshua Holland explains for AlterNet, President Barack Obama’s response to the unemployment crisis has not matched the urgency of his response to the crisis on Wall Street. This isn’t just unfair, it’s bad economics. (more…)
Weekly Audit: Time for a Second Stimulus
by Zach Carter, TMC MediaWire Blogger
Another stunning reminder of the U.S. economy’s dire condition arrived last Thursday. The nation shed a total of 467,000 jobs in June according to the Department of Labor. That’s 35% more than it lost in May. Despite talk about “green shoots” from Wall Street, a meaningful recovery with full employment and rising incomes is a very long way off. It’s time to start pushing another round of economic stimulus to help those searching for jobs get back on their feet, according to several independent media outlets.
The situation is grim, but not hopeless, as Ruth Coniff notes for The Progressive. The stimulus package Obama signed in mid-February was a good start, but it was designed to tackle a much less drastic economic downturn. Looking at the current slate of unemployment figures, Coniff reaches a clear conclusion: “The situation calls for a big new round of government stimulus spending,” she writes. And she’s right.
Steve Benen at The Washington Monthly offers a great, if depressing, translation of the unemployment data. Economists expected job losses to come in at 365,000, but were off by over 27%. June’s payroll declines pushed the unemployment rate to 9.5%, the highest level in 26 years. That would be bad enough on its own. But if you include people who’ve been out of a job for more than a year and the number of people who are working part-time jobs but want to be working full-time, the total number of unemployed climbs makes a whopping 16.5%. That’s the worst figure of its kind on record. If these figures don’t serve as a reality check for policymakers, nothing will.
In a blog post for The American Prospect, Tim Fernholz explains that the ever-rising unemployment rate is worse than it seems, because so many policies are based on rosier economic expectations. Remember the stress tests the government conducted to figure out how much more money banks would need to operate? The unemployment rate has now exceeded the worst-case scenario contemplated by those tests, meaning that banks are going to be strapped for cash for a long time. And cash-strapped banks don’t make loans. They sit on their money and wait for things to get better.
Banks have behaved very badly over the past decade, but they’re an important part of the recovery mechanism. Lending can get productive businesses off the ground and help existing enterprises meet payrolls and buy supplies. Indeed, the size of President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package relied very heavily on a healthy financial sector actively lending money out into the economy. We’re watching a destructive feedback loop play out: the financial implosion has created massive job losses, and those job losses have made banks reluctant to lend, which forces businesses to lay off more people.
Some major long-term policy trends are playing out in the unemployment numbers, as Leo Hindery Jr. and Leo W. Gerard note for The Nation. The U.S. economy’s manufacturing base was hardest-hit, and has shed 13% of its workforce since the recession began. But we don’t make very much stuff in the U.S. anymore. The manufacturing sector has declined steadily over several administrations, and now represents just 11.5% of our total economy. Unfortunately, there is a limit to the number of service-sector jobs you can create or save when manufacturing is in a death-spiral.
And while Germany, Japan, South Korea and China all work to preserve their manufacturing operations,Hindrey and Gerard argue that the Obama administration hasn’t learned its lesson. The U.S. is fighting bank bailouts, which is deepening a global imbalance that leaves our economy vulnerable. Sure, we bailed out GM and Chrysler, but the bailout money has been devoted to shutting down dozens of factories and outsourcing jobs to other countries, as Mike Fritz and Harry Hanbury demonstrate in a video spot for American News Project. We have to make a dedicated public commitment to making useful stuff. Green energy and infrastructure are the right place to start.
But what do all these dire statistics and structural imbalances actually mean for ordinary people? AlterNet’s Rachel Neumann profiles Luz Guerra, a 52-year-old unemployed mother of a college student. Guerra left her last job to care for a sick family member and started looking for work in 2008. She has over 30 years of experience as an organizer and adult educator, covering topics from multicultural awareness to popular economics. These are skills that have a lot of social value that could help a lot of people in the current economy, if anyone were hiring. After months of searching in every sector from non-profits to retail, the 52-year old is running out of financial rope. She’s been surviving by racking up tremendous credit card debt and selling off her possessions, one by one. Now she faces foreclosure and the prospect of losing her health insurance coverage. This is what unemployment means. It’s not a lazy life for ne’er do wells. It’s a constant process of searching and interviewing, where even hard-working, accomplished people struggle to make ends meet as a result of enormous structural forces beyond their control.
We can’t just sit back and hope the programs the Obama administration has enacted will work. Air America carries a piece by prominent economist Dean Baker, who explains that the economic stimulus package has already doled out most of its support. Even though much of the government spending hasn’t taken place yet, the majority of the stimulus was composed to lower taxes and expanded benefits. This is as good as the first round is going to get.
If we’re serious about fixing the economy, we need to roll out a second stimulus package to promote plenty of manufacturing jobs and bring work to our workers.
This post features links to the best independent, progressive reporting about the economy. Visit StimulusPlan.NewsLadder.net and Economy.NewsLadder.net for complete lists of articles on the economy, or follow us on Twitter. And for the best progressive reporting on critical health and immigration issues, check out Healthcare.NewsLadder.net and Immigration.NewsLadder.net. This is a project of The Media Consortium, a network of 50 leading independent media outlets, and was created by NewsLadder.
Bankruptcy Law is Key to Obama’s Foreclosure Fight
President Barack Obama unveiled his administration’s plan to fight foreclosures on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the most important element of the program will require Congressional action—and the banking and business lobbies are already on the attack.
The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan has three chief components:
- Offer financial incentives to persuade loan servicers to modify mortgages
- Allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance more mortgages
- Change bankruptcy laws and give judges the power to reduce the amount borrowers owe on their mortgages.
The financial incentives probably won’t help much, as Kevin Drum writes for Mother Jones. When a bank makes a mortgage, it doesn’t usually hold onto the loan. Instead, the loan is packaged into a security with a other loans and sold to several investors. Another bank collects payments on the mortgage for the security’s investors and acts as a point of contact, or loan servicer, for the borrower. To date, servicers haven’t shown much interest in keeping people in their homes, even though foreclosure is the worst option for all parties involved.
“Loan servicers already have an incentive to rework loans that would otherwise go into default, and for the most part they aren’t doing it,” Drum writes. “Will a couple thousand dollars [of incentives] change their internal calculus?”
The provision aimed at Fannie and Freddie will help some. It’s also a good use of the government’s authority over the companies, which were nationalized last summer. But the key to Obama’s plan is the bankruptcy provision. Until now, every government-enacted plan to reduce foreclosures has relied on incentives to encourage the banking industry to keep people in their homes. As Drum notes, bankruptcy is the stick behind those carrots. Obama is supporting a bill in Congress that would enable bankruptcy judges to reduce the amount a borrower owes to the present value of the home. The beauty here is that investors who own the mortgage securities, not taxpayers, will have to eat the losses. In short, investors will be held responsible for making a poor investment.
“The government is essentially presenting a choice for mortgage lenders: take our deal, which is standardized across the entire industry, or let a bankruptcy judge modify the loan however he or she sees fit,” Tim Fernholz writes for The American Prospect.
The bank lobby has been fighting the bankruptcy law change since the foreclosure crisis began in 2007, and they wasted no time lashing out at Obama’s proposal today. Elana Schor of Talking Points Memo highlights a nasty statement released by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, one of “Washington’s biggest lobbying groups.” The release not only attacks the Homeowner Affordability and Stability plan, but takes a shot at Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as well, saying the policy “should have undergone a stress test to determine if it’s ready to stabilize a major portion of our economy.” Stress tests for the financial viability of banks were a big part of the murky bank bailout plan Geithner rolled out last week.
If Congress fails to pass a bankruptcy law overhaul, the entire plan will fall apart. And the record so far is not very promising—last year’s bill garnered only about half of the votes necessary to override a filibuster in the Senate.
Team Obama deserves credit for taking action on foreclosures, as John Nichols writes for The Nation. The Bush administration spent years vilifying troubled borrowers and then dedicated hundreds of billions of dollars bailing out banks. If Congress can’t pass bankruptcy law reform, the government should simply force banks to modify loans. The strategy would be simple—either keep borrowers in their homes, or return your check from the federal government.
“Ohio Congressman Marcy Kaptur and economist Dean Baker have some smart ideas,” Nichols writes. “They argue that the proper role for the federal government is not to fund mortgage negotiations but to insist that banks—many of which have already collected billions in taxpayer dollars—carry them out.”
This post features links to the best independent, progressive reporting about the economy. Visit StimulusPlan.NewsLadder.net and Economy.NewsLadder.net for complete lists of articles on the economy, or follow us on Twitter. And for the best progressive reporting on critical health and immigration issues, check out Healthcare.NewsLadder.net and Immigration.NewsLadder.net. This is a project of The Media Consortium, a network of 50 leading independent media outlets, and was created by NewsLadder.
Weekly Audit: Curbing Decline in 2009
In 2008, we witnessed the first serious fallout from deep structural flaws in the relationship between the nation’s public and private sectors, a relationship which fell short in every conceivable area from Wall Street regulation to the basic social safety net. The biggest economic stories of 2009 will be about how President-elect Barack Obama’s administration repairs—or fails to repair—that connection.
The first step in rebuilding a government that actually responds to problems before they reach the bailout stage will be Obama’s highly anticipated economic recovery package. As Dean Baker notes for The Huffington Post, the failure to date of Congress to pass meaningful stimulus legislation has been beyond negligent. Several Congressional leaders are cautioning that a bill will not be ready until February, but with more than two weeks to go before Obama’s inauguration, Congress has both the time and the public support necessary to pass a major bill before Obama takes up a chair in the Oval Office, as anyone who remembers the speed of Congressional action moved on the Wall Street bailout can attest.
The content of the legislation will reveal a great deal about Obama’s priorities. No president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has entered office with an economic mandate as clear as that Obama enjoys, but one early warning sign for progressives is this week’s news that Obama plans to devote as much as 40% of the bill to tax cuts, a number that could go higher in legislative haggling with Congressional Republicans.
In a blog post over at The Washington Monthly, Hilzoy highlights the well-established economic fact that tax cuts are the least efficient method for boosting economic activity. Remember the February 2008 economic stimulus bill? Fat lot of good those $600 tax rebates did.
Public investment in areas like health care, green energy and research into sustainable manufacturing also leaves a stronger economy in its wake, and spending on basic infrastructure projects—roads, bridges, etc.—has been sorely neglected for the past eight years.
What’s more, as Ezra Klein notes for The American Prospect, the U.S. government seems to be in perpetual tax cutting mode, whether economic times are good or bad. While cutting the right taxes amid a severe recession can be justified, President George W. Bush’s decision to take a chainsaw to the IRS code during an economic boom cannot become a permanent facet of U.S. policy.
Imperative services provided by state governments are currently in severe jeopardy amid tax shortfalls prompted by lower housing values. The Public News Service discusses budget problems in Michigan and Missouri in pieces by Tony Bruscato and Laura Thornquist. Michigan faces cutbacks in health care for the poor and college tuition assistance programs, while Missouri needs to fill a $900 million hole by 2010.
State and local governments are likely to be $200 billion underwater next year, according to a piece by Robert Kuttner appearing in Chelsea Green. Even if Obama does not want to tackle major issues like universal health care in his first 100 days in office, he could fund community health clinics and make sure police officers, firefighters and teachers do not lose their jobs.
It has been easy to forget amid the mortgage market news of 2008 that other aspects of the economy have been under intense strain. In a frightening interview with The Real News, Leo Panitch details how a drop-off in working-class wages, fueled by a decades-long decline in the power of organized labor, has forced millions of Americans to turn to expensive consumer debt just to make ends meet.
That surge in credit card debt has been accompanied by a refusal on behalf of the federal government to place meaningful regulations on credit card lending practices. The Federal Reserve finally took steps in December to rein in deceptive credit card lending, but as Mike Lillis demonstrates for The Colorado Independent, the new rules are relatively modest given the scope of credit card-related abuses. Lenders can still do pretty much anything they want to a borrower once they miss a payment, and the Fed’s restrictions do not even go into effect until July 2010.
If low wages and predatory credit cards are not enough to push consumers into financial ruin, consider what is taking place in the student loan industry. The government keeps the student loan market going in two primary ways: by directly lending to students and by guaranteeing loans students take out from private lenders like Sallie Mae, making it cheaper for Sallie Mae to extend loans. The government-assisted private sector loans cost taxpayers significantly more money than loans made through the direct loan program.
When student lenders hit the skids this year amid a Wall Street-induced credit crunch, the government responded by financing student loans made through private companies.
But if the government is not only guaranteeing private-sector loans but financing them as well, the resulting scheme is essentially a less efficient version of the direct loan program, as Cole Robertson explains in a piece for The Nation. Sallie Mae CEO Albert Lord seems to approve of the bailout plan, but has not offered to return one penny of the orgiastic pay he’s accumulated over the past year in return for this taxpayer largess. Lord cashed out over $44 million in stock options in one day during the summer of 2007, and has been targeted by Congressional insider trading investigations for convenient sales of Sallie Mae stock.
A big federal bailout accompanied by outrageous executive compensation. Sounds familiar.
It is truly astonishing to consider how much damage conservatives have done to public attitudes on economic issues over the past 14 years. There is nothing inherently progressive about policy suggestions like like funding emergency health care, paying firefighters and teachers or refusing to allow lenders to arbitrarily change the terms of a contract without borrower consent. This stuff is basic sanity. At least 2009 promises not to be boring. We will either witness a return to said sanity that would have been unthinkable even a year ago or another depression. Happy New Year.
This post features links to the best independent, progressive reporting about the economy. Visit Economy.NewsLadder.net for a complete list of articles on immigration, or follow us on Twitter. And for the best progressive reporting on critical health and immigration issues, check out Healthcare.NewsLadder.net and Immigration.NewsLadder.net. This is a project of The Media Consortium, a network of 50 leading independent media outlets, and was created by NewsLadder.